Operating review for the quarter

Europe

  Quarter ended
EUR million Mar
2026
Dec
2025
Sept
2025
Jun
2025
Mar
2025
Volumes sold – tons (000’s) 499 461 479 479 491
Revenue 492 457 483 503 523
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items (5) 10 (31) (19) 4
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items to revenue (%) (1.0) 2.2 (6.4) (3.8) 0.8
Adjusted EBITDA 17 33 (6) 4 25
Adjusted EBITDA to revenue (%) 3.5 7.2 (1.2) 0.8 4.8
RONOA pa (%) (2.0) 3.7 (10.9) (6.4) 1.4

Market conditions in the European region remained challenging, reflecting persistent macroeconomic weakness and a significant oversupply in paper markets. Despite the subdued demand environment, sales volumes were 2% higher than the prior year. However, this improvement was insufficient to offset the material decline in selling prices. During the quarter, the region began to realise the benefits of the strategic capacity rationalisation initiatives and associated operational efficiency improvements, delivering both fixed and variable cost savings that supported underlying profitability.

The packaging and speciality papers segment continued to experience headwinds from excess capacity and ongoing pricing pressure. Notwithstanding these challenges, sales volumes increased by 12% year-on-year, driven primarily by growth in the label papers business, with wet glue label paper volumes up 30% compared to the prior year. Paperboard and flexible packaging markets remained lacklustre amid overcapacity and weak demand. The higher sales volumes were insufficient to offset the impact of pricing, which declined by 5% year-on-year, adversely affecting segment profitability.

Graphic papers sales volumes declined by 2% compared to the prior year, representing a relatively strong performance within the context of structurally declining market demand. However, the persistent demand erosion and significant overcapacity in the region continued to exert pressure on pricing, with average selling prices declining by 10% year-on-year. These structurally adverse pricing dynamics continue to weigh on overall profitability, despite our high capacity utilisation levels and ongoing cost-saving actions.

Variable costs decreased by 7% compared to the prior year, reflecting lower energy, purchased pulp and chemical costs, partially offset by higher wood costs. Fixed costs declined by 13% year-on-year, primarily due to personnel savings resulting from our strategic rationalisation initiatives.

North America

  Quarter ended
US$ million Mar
2026
Dec
2025
Sept
2025
Jun
2025
Mar
2025
Volumes sold – tons (000’s) 352 335 359 326 362
Revenue 420 395 429 404 440
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items (24) (30) (3) (21) 5
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items to revenue (%) (5.7) (7.6) (0.7) (5.2) 1.1
Adjusted EBITDA 7 (1) 28 5 29
Adjusted EBITDA to revenue (%) 1.7 (0.3) 6.5 1.2 6.6
RONOA pa (%) (5.7) (6.9) (0.7) (4.9) 1.2

Profitability of the North American region improved compared to the prior quarter but remained substantially below last year. Performance was adversely affected by the materially lower paperboard pricing and slower than anticipated ramp-up of paperboard sales volumes.

Despite the weak paperboard market conditions, steady progress was made in ramping up PM2 volumes. Paperboard sales volumes increased by 27% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter with order activity accelerating towards the end of the quarter. Customer trials continued to transition into commercial sales, with market feedback on product quality remaining positive. However, profitability in the segment remained constrained by materially lower paperboard pricing, with industry benchmark solid bleached sulphate (SBS) paperboard prices having declined by approximately US$100 per ton in the prior quarter, driven in part by industry overcapacity. The recently announced industry capacity reductions in the North American region will support an improvement in the market balance.

Graphic papers sales volumes declined by 18% compared to the prior year, due to the planned capacity reduction associated with the PM2 conversion. The segment was fully sold during the quarter and was constrained by low inventories and production disruptions early in the quarter. In the short-term we are carouselling graphic papers volumes onto Somerset Mill PM1 where feasible to mitigate the slower ramp-up of paperboard sales volumes. A tighter domestic market balance following our capacity reduction, combined with tariff-related pressure on imports, supported resilient pricing and healthy margins for the segment despite ongoing structural demand decline.

Demand for DWP remained steady, while high yield pulp demand was adversely affected by weak downstream packaging markets and global overcapacity.

Pulp sales volumes declined compared to the prior year as a greater portion of production from the Cloquet and Matane Mills was strategically integrated into downstream operations. DWP volumes were also impacted by lower production in the prior quarter due to operational disruptions at the Cloquet Mill. Segment profitability was negatively affected by significantly lower year-on-year selling prices.

Variable costs increased by 4% compared to the prior year, as lower raw material costs for purchased pulp, wood and energy were offset by adverse raw material usage as a result of the operational challenges mentioned above. Delivery costs increased due to higher fuel prices and changes in geographical distribution as paperboard sales expanded. Fixed costs declined by 5% compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower personnel costs.

South Africa

  Quarter ended
ZAR million Mar
2026
Dec
2025
Sept
2025
Jun
2025
Mar
2025
Volumes sold – tons (000’s) 728 749 751 644 690
Revenue 5,522 6,164 6,936 6,334 6,598
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items (1,796) 205 1,121 550 148
Operating profit (loss) excluding special items to revenue (%) (32.5) 3.3 16.2 8.7 2.2
Adjusted EBITDA 334 805 1,486 1,172 883
Adjusted EBITDA to revenue (%) 6.0 13.1 21.4 18.5 13.4
RONOA pa (%) (23.2) 2.6 13.8 6.7 1.8

Despite steady demand and sales volumes across all segments, profitability of the South African region was negatively impacted by lower selling prices. In particular, the pulp segment's profitability was materially affected by significantly lower US Dollar-denominated DWP prices, compounded by adverse US$/ZAR exchange rate movements. The scheduled maintenance shut at the Saiccor Mill further reduced earnings by approximately US$10 million. The forestry fair value price adjustment for the quarter resulted in a negative revaluation of ZAR1,692 million, driven predominantly by adverse exchange rate movements affecting the ZAR-denominated price of hardwood timber, which is linked to US Dollar export parity.

Demand for DWP remained strong, supported by favourable downstream VSF market conditions following the Chinese New Year. Sales volumes were flat year-on-year; however, the combined impact of lower US Dollar pricing and unfavourable exchange rate movements reduced ZAR-denominated selling prices by approximately 23%, weighing materially on pulp segment margins. The scope of the Saiccor Mill scheduled maintenance shut was reduced, with certain work deferred to the fourth quarter. As a result, the earnings impact for the quarter was below the previously communicated guidance of US$15 million, with the deferred expenditure expected to be incurred in the fourth quarter.

Containerboard sales volumes were broadly in line with the prior year, supported by robust agricultural demand and positive market forecasts for the 2026 citrus season. However, net selling prices were 3% lower than last year, reflecting weak global containerboard market conditions and increased competition from low priced imports into South Africa.

Demand for office paper and newsprint remained steady, with sales volumes exceeding prior year levels. Notwithstanding the volume growth, selling prices declined by 15%, driven by intensified competition from low-priced imports, which continued to pressure profitability of the domestic market.

Variable costs declined by 5% compared to the prior year, driven primarily by lower purchased pulp and wood costs. Delivery costs increased by 2% as higher fuel costs and shipping surcharges were implemented late in the quarter following the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Fixed costs decreased by 12% year-on-year, due to lower personnel and maintenance costs.